Positive expected value (+EV) betting is a strategy where the bettor places bets that have a better chance of winning than the odds suggest. Over time, this approach is expected to be profitable because the potential gains are greater than the potential losses. Essentially, it's about finding bets where the potential rewards outweigh the risks, based on careful statistical analysis and understanding of probabilities.
For instance, if the odds suggest a 40% chance of winning (+150), but your analysis shows it's really 50% (+100), you could expect a 25% return over time with many bets. By consistently making bets with a positive expected value (EV), you aim to be profitable in the long run, despite potential short-term losses. This strategy relies on a solid understanding of probabilities, odds, and value, making it a more analytical and disciplined approach to betting.
For each event, we look at odds from all bookmakers. We then remove the bookmaker's profit margin (called the vig or "juice") to find out what each bookmaker thinks the "true" probability of an outcome is. We average these "true" probabilities from all bookmakers and subtract one standard deviation to get our "estimated" odds. Any odds that are better than our "estimated" odds are considered positive expected value (+EV).
We believe our method is conservative yet more accurate. While some providers label bets as +EV based solely on odds from "sharp" bookmakers, this can be unreliable since a bookmaker may be sharp in one sport but not in another. Our approach also works well in high vig or low confidence markets. For instance, even if odds differ significantly from the average, they might still fall within the expected standard deviation or range. We would not consider such odds as +EV.
For each +EV bet, we suggest a percentage of your bankroll to wager based on the Kelly criterion. This formula in sports betting helps you determine how much money to bet on a particular wager by considering the odds and the probability of winning. The goal is to maximize long-term profit while minimizing the risk of losing your entire bankroll. By calculating the optimal bet size, the Kelly criterion ensures that you bet enough to benefit from favorable odds without risking too much during a losing streak.
Arbitrage betting, also known as "sure betting," is a strategy where a bettor places bets on all possible outcomes of an event using different bookmakers to guarantee a profit, regardless of the result. This is possible because different bookmakers may offer varying odds on the same event. By carefully calculating and placing bets, the bettor ensures that the total payout is higher than the total amount wagered.
For instance, if one bookmaker offers +140 on Team A and another offers -120 on Team B, a bettor can guarantee a profit by staking $433.07 on Team A and $566.93 on Team B for a total investment of $1,000. Regardless of which team wins, the return is approximately $1,039.37, locking in a $39.37 profit - an almost 4% ROI. While the margin is slim, this kind of arbitrage bet is almost risk-free and can yield consistent returns when scaled or repeated across multiple events.
Arbitrage betting is often described as risk-free in theory because it involves placing bets in such a way that no matter the outcome, a profit is guaranteed. However, in practice, several factors can introduce risks:
While arbitrage betting can be a profitable strategy when executed correctly, these practical risks mean it is not entirely risk-free. Careful planning, quick execution, and awareness of the potential pitfalls are essential for minimizing these risks.
Middles are similar to arbitrage opportunities, targeting pricing discrepancies in totals and spreads across sportsbooks, and are subject to the same risks as arbs (a middle is also an arb if the hold is negative, though this is rare). Instead of locking in a guaranteed win, you are betting that the probability of the middle hitting is greater than the hold (juice or vig). You place bets on both sides of a line, giving yourself the chance to win both, win one and push the other, or take a small loss.
For example, if you bet Over 49.5 at one book and Under 50.5 at another on an NFL game, a final score of 50 would hit the middle and both bets would win, giving you a significant profit. If the score is 49 or below, you win the Under bet and lose the Over bet. If the score is 51 or above, you win the Over bet and lose the Under bet. You're only risking the hold (juice/vig) amount, not the full outlay on both sides. However, this strategy only makes sense if the middle is +EV - meaning the chance of landing on that exact outcome is higher than the hold (the bookmaker's edge/profit margin). For example, by analyzing NFL score distributions, certain totals are more likely to land in the middle range, letting you exploit mispriced overlap where the true probability beats the vig.
We aggregate odds from 21 sportsbooks to provide you with the most comprehensive view of the betting market. Our coverage includes:
The more sportsbooks you have access to, the more +EV bets and arbitrage opportunities you can take advantage of. We recommend having accounts with as many reputable sportsbooks as possible to maximize your potential profits. Each sportsbook may offer different odds on the same event, and having multiple options allows you to capitalize on these differences.
We cover 10 major sports:
For each sport, we monitor moneyline, spreads, totals, and player props markets.
Our data refreshes every 6 minute(s). We're hoping to increase the update frequency in the future to provide even more real-time insights.
The odds or lines may have changed - check the timestamp of the last refresh at the bottom of the screen. The market might also be listed under alternate markets, such as spreads, totals, or player props, usually in a different tab or section.
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